Sent to you by Andy via Google Reader:
Nassim Taleb has recently been debunking the arrogance of the medical profession, with the same verve he has used to lay naked the ignorance of bankers. He quotes Martial:
Non habui febrem, Symmache, nunc habeo. I did not feel ill, Symmache; now I do (after your ministrations).
And it is quite well-known that most doctors cannot answer correctly the following quiz: "Assume a test for a rare disease (which affects 1 person in a million) is 99.99% accurate. You test positive. What are the probabilities you actually have the disease?"
Recently a neurosurgeon debated the issue of compulsory helmet use for children with John Adams, whose book "Risk" is a must read for anyone who is interested in reducing deaths on the road.
The neurosurgeon admitted that there is no reliable data on the number of children who have serious head injuries as result of riding a bicycle compared to those who fall down stairs, or at the playground, or as passengers in cars. And yet he promoted helmet use for the first case but not for the others.
John Adams showed how compulsory helmet use will probably have no effect on the number of head injuries, just as the introduction of seat belts has had no impact on the reduction of road deaths.
At the end of the debate, the medical practitioners in the audience were asked their views on compulsory helmet use; with only a couple of exceptions, they all voted for compulsion.
The cynics will say that doctors make more money from millions of obese children than from a few hundred head injuries.
Answer to the quiz: 1% [if a million people are tested, there will be 100 false positives, but only one will have the disease]
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